A dictionary for the future — Amati and Associates

As we enter an era of increasing complexity, rapid change, and critical uncertainty, all organizations need to be prepared for the unexpected. Strategic foresight is required when there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding changes to the future context. Working with the future involves — first and foremost — understanding the key ingredients and their meanings. In this article, we focus on the critical definitions of forward-looking work.

The United States Army’s War College was one of its earliest adopters of the VUCA acronym. Military planners were concerned about the radically different and unusual international security environment that had developed, so they coined the term VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) to describe it. VUCA stands for:

• Volatility — change can be sudden and dramatic in its nature and extent; it is not predictable.
• Uncertainty — the present is not clear, and the future is uncertain
• Complexity — many different factors are involved, and they can be complicated.
• Ambiguity — there is a lack of understanding or confusion about situations.

Foresight uses a variety of methodologies, including scanning the horizon for emerging trends, analyzing megatrends, and developing multiple scenarios to…